I have warned about this for some time, this is not positive news, especially for the poor and middle class. Citibank announced recently that they will no longer allow depositors to withdraw more  than a $100,000 per month. So Citibank has taken first position on your money. Not a good time to keep money at a bank. also, not a good idea to keep savings in US Dollars..i recommend ETF’s in gold, silver, austrailian $, swiss franc, commiodities. Even if the return isnt high, these are great inflation hedges. if the dollar falls 5%..you just lost 5%. if the Fed keeps inflating the money supply as reported below soon inflation will eat you alive.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Banks have NEGATIVE reserve ratios

The Federal Reserve published on Jan. 17, 2008 the bi-weekly report Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions and the Monetary Base.  I encourage you to review this report to see the actual numbers and trends.

The Federal Reserve published on Jan. 17, 2008 the bi-weekly report Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions and the Monetary Base.  I encourage you to review this report to see the actual numbers and trends.

A bank’s reserves is equal to the sum of borrowed and non-borrowed reserves.  Because the Federal Reserve acts as the lender of last resort the Federal Reserve system acts as one bank.

So, where are the required reserves coming from?  The Federal Reserve is printing the money out of thin air as shows up in ‘Term auction credit’.

Dec      11,613

Jan 2    30,000

Jan 16  40,000

This combined increase in one month of 81,613 compared to the monetary base of 820,331 is about 9.9%, or 119% annually, of the total money supply.  This is very serious inflation.

The Bottom Line

Instead of holding $18 of non-borrowed reserves the average bank in the US owes $1.70 to the Federal Reserve for every $1,000 to meet the required reserve ratio.  To continue meeting their required reserve ratio the banks are borrowing about $12.5B per week that the Federal Reserve prints out of thin air increasing the money supply by 10% per month.

Note:

After deeper research this is the first time ever in the history of the Federal Reserve that the non-borrowed reserves number has ever gone negative. The Fed has always been in control over the individual banks and held moral suasion over them which prevented them from borrowing to meet their required reserve ratio.

Bernake has said the ‘loans’ will go on as long as necessary and he has been increasing the size of them.

What makes you think the banks would ever want to repay these loans? They are a cheaper source of capital than anywhere else. The banks have now shifted the cost of their reserves onto the Fed who is then printing the reserves out of thin air. Because the Federal Reserve system functions like one big bank (whose required reserve ratio is now being printed out of thin air every week to prevent a bank run) and because the Fed has lost all control, they no longer have any moral suasion power, therefore hyperinflation is the only option to a bank run.

We’ve now officially entered the Weimar Germany phase.

hi fellow Jersey patriots and some ex Jersey peeps.
 
The next step in the Freedom Movement begins in NJ. Murray Sabrin is running on the Republican ticket for NJ Senate. Murray’s platform is similar to Ron Paul’s. Limited government, free markets, less taxation, sound money, protection of civil liberties and a non-interventionist foreign policy. If you want the government off your back and out of your wallet and end useless regulation and free up the markets to ensure true prosperity, then please donate today and support Sabrin for Senate.
 
Please check him out at www.murraysabrin.com  he was recently endorsed by Ron Paul.
 
Murray will be speaking today(2/29/08) at Wall St at 4pm in Bowling Green Park.
 
cheers

Last night i attended my monthly working capital market group meeting headed by nations top economists and investors. Peter Schiff is a popular attendee as example. Here we discuss monetary and fiscal policy, capital markers, debt markets, bond markets, commodities and occasional mention of real-estate (mostly me).

 This group has long been bearish on the markets and very bearish almost gloom and doom on the global economy. We study and debate charts…charts…and more charts. Ive learned more about statistics and math in four months than all four years at college.

Ive mentioned this group in some post below and after last night the economic outlook went from bad to worse. This is being played out today in the news with the Fed finally admitting worsening economic trends. Ill go over some of the highlights of last nights meeting.

We are entering a perfect storm for a crash, last night we pointed out all the signals that point to a 1929 crash…..and they are ALL there.  In some instances we are in worse shape than 1929. Only variable that cant be seen on its effect is globalisation that did not exist in 1929.

We pointed out five demons that are to cause this crash.  1. National Debt: 9 trillion today, $70 trillion due in 20 years. This alone will keep us in a economic downturn for a decade. 2. Falling dollar: due to over spending, over borrowing and too much inflation (money supply). This is vital since a low dollar will not attract people or nations to buy our debt. This will cause interests rates to spike and taxes to go up. 3. Inflation: low interest rates and too much liquidity has caused too much mal investment and poor business decisions. Basically this easy money has created businesses that a true free market would purged. 4: Taxes: Americans now pay nearly 50% of the fruits of their labor to the government on all levels. Supreme Court Judge Marshall once said, “The power to tax, is the power to destroy”. 5. Over Regulation: this was just mentioned, but never got into details.

Above represents the macro picture of problems, now lets look at the micro level. The stock markets are starting to form their iron crosses and have entered a bear market and a long term sell-off trend.  Dow and NASDAQ are down 20%+ and S&P is close behind. We have officially entered a bear market and its only the beginning, we have another 30-40% correction built in. Companies will begin to report lower earnings and losses by 2nd quarter 2008. We are still only in the beginning of the sub-prime mess…it will get worse. There is already another bubble ready to burst…the credit card market.  Watch 2009 to see alot of pain and suffering with credit cards.

Alot of this is in relationship to liquidity. THERE IS NONE. BANKS ARE BROKE.  Each week, by law, banks are required to report there reserve ratios to the Fed and Congress. This ratio is derived by taking cash on hand and borrowed reserves. For decades banks borrowed from each other on the over night counter (fed funds rate) to cover there reserve limits. Banks stopped doing this late last year…why??? Then the federal reserve lowered their discount rate and created a “private auction”. The reason banks no longer lend between each other is simply because they have NO CASH to lend. The reserve ratio by law needs to be above 1.0.  In times of a recession where you hope banks inject liquidity, this ratio can go as low as .6 well….the last reported numbers from banks in december had them in negative territory. Then all of a sudden they all stopped reporting this mandatory weekly ratio…its the law for any charted bank. THE LAW! Past two months…..nothing! and no outrage from the Fed or Congress. Why??? because if you knew banks had no cash, nothing, nada, flat broke…what would you do?  There would be a bank holiday…run on the bank. 1929 all over again.

Taking this into consideration, falling dollar and intense national debt. the government and the Fed are nearly powerless to avert the coming crash…they created it. The Fed cant lower rates much more, they will, but there will be a limit. Lower too much and the dollar will crash. Dollar loses too much value, all our creditors around the world will dump dollars and we will have hyper inflation..20%+. We cant keep borrowing money to pay the bills, especially with low interest rates….they will have to rise sharply. Imagine credit cards at 30%, car loans at 20% and mortgages at 15%…we borrow $9 trillion, we have to pay it back some day….some how. The market is ALWAYS stronger than the Fed and government, no matter how much they get involved in our economy…which is why they should not be involved period! The market is going to send us all a strong message in late 2008, early 2009. We have lived beyond our means with guns and butter, so we will be destined to live below our means from then on.

Not that the Fed and government has already screwed us….there are talks that the US Government and the Fed will take a unprecedented step of buying a broad range of assets, including stocks and other equities. This is being discussed because everyone knows the Fed and Washington are scared, they know we are “f*****”! This policy is nothing more than the largest buyout in history, it will involve more than a trillion dollars and a huge devaluation of the dollar. Ok, so good bye any savings you have and a tax burden of unmeasurable value. (dont forget that $70 trillion coming in 20 years). We will become surfs to the state. We and future generations will have to work longer, harder for less. It may even be the end of such a empire….one only needs to look at history of great empires…the road to Rome.

So…what does one do? first get out of the stock market unless you absolutely know how to position oneself. This involves alot of options, leaps and how to play the bond market. This was discussed heavily last night, but over my head and personally dont care since im 100% out of the stock market. Next, get out of dollar evaluated securities such as IRAS and Mutual Funds….they will drop like a rock in a crash, especially with the falling dollar. If the dollar falls 10%…you just lost 10%, that simple. The dollar has lost more than 20% of its value past year…inflation is on our door-step.

Go into hard assets such as gold, silver, platinum, commodities such as wheat and corn, real-estate, especially commercial and a basket of currencies. The Canadian and Australian dollar are highly recommended. As is Swiss Franc and the Chinese Yuan if you can get it.

Mindful this economic crash will follow into Europe then into Asia. Alot of the economists at this meeting are predicting a 7-10 year fall-out.

Dont forget our lovely welfare check we will be getting in May, more borrowed money…yeah!!! the only place you should park this $600 is pay down debt or buy gold.

I cant wait till next months meeting, alot can happen in 30 days.

Video above is last part of MTV/Myspace dialogue from Saturday Feb. 2nd.

Describes exactly why Ron Paul is different among all the “we are change” candidates. when they mention “change” its really tinkering. what we will see is ALOT of the same. Problem is we cant afford it anymore, neither can we afford to loose any more civil liberties.

Ron Paul simply wants the government out of our lives, out of our economy and out of the lives of other people around the world. Government has failed. Socialism has failed.

Why does the federal government need the Dept. of Education, Energy, Labor, DEA, Homeland Security…etc…they have no authority under the Constitution, not in a FREE society where individuals take personal responsibility and self reliance.

Collectivism won in the 20th century, lets work hard to ensure freedom and individual liberty win  the 21st!

When I tell people I believe in limiting the size and scope of government and individual freedom and abiding by the US Constitution, I often get “who cares…we NEED government..blah…blah…blah” This is from both conservatives and liberals alike.

Our founders who gave up so much in blood and treasure for our freedoms…that is political, social and economic would be very upset at what we have come to.  We seem to have lost the faith and confidence on how FREEDOM works. Trust in free markets and the goodness of philanthropy. Let people run thier lives and economy, not some elite few on a hill.

Below is a great letter from Bill St. Clair Crypto-Anarcho-Libertarian writer and activist, or perhaps from Larken Rose..there is some debate who wrote this.  Explains exactly what cohersion from government is and asks the question..Who Owns Me?

It never ceases to amaze me how people change what I say in order
to be able to rebut it. Some people “advocate” anarchy, meaning
they suggest doing away with government altogether, abolishing it,
and forming a free society. That is NOT what I am suggesting, any
more than I am suggesting that Santa Claus be abolished. I am
arguing about what IS, not what SHOULD be. The only “should” I’m
suggesting is that people “should” accept open their eyes to
reality, accept the truth, and throw away the insane, self-
contradictory, horribly destructive superstition upon which ALL of
the political beliefs of 99.9% of the population rest. I don’t want
to CHANGE reality; I merely want people to RECOGNIZE it, and then
deal with it as they see fit. When people tell me that they don’t
think my idea will “work,” or aren’t “practical” or “realistic,” it
tells me that those people aren’t reading what I wrote. About 90%
of political discussions I have with people amount to this:

Me: “Santa Claus isn’t real. He doesn’t exist.”

Other guy: “But Christmas would never work without Santa! We can’t
do away with him! You’re being too idealistic. The people would
never get Christmas to work without Santa! They’re just not
charitable enough. Sure, there should be limits on what Santa is
allowed to do, but we can’t have NO Santa. That would never work!
Your idea is too extreme. We need Santa to do SOME things!”

Let me break this down to something which is both amazingly simple,
and yet which hardly anyone ever thinks about (and which you will
NEVER hear discussed in any mainstream politic debate, or in any
“educational” institution):

Fred and Bob are hungry. There is one sandwich on the table in
front of them. They both want it. Who gets it? It depends upon who
“owns” it–who has a rightful claim to it? To whom does it belong?

The concept is pretty darn simple. Now try this: Who owns me? Do I
own myself, or does someone else (an individual or a group) own me?
At this point almost everyone responds by saying that I own me–but
almost NO ONE actually believes it.

What does it mean to own something? It mean to have the exclusive
right to use it as you see fit, to dispose of it if you wish, to
give it away, to sell it, whatever. For any given thing–including
me–SOMEONE has to have the “final say” on what is done with it. So
the question is, who has the ultimate say over what is done with
ME?

I do. And from that one simple statement, ALL of my political
beliefs can be inferred. Trouble is, most people never bother to
consider what all logically follows from that one simple statement.

There are four guys, including me, in a room. I want to play the
piano. They want to play doubles dominoes, which they can’t without
four people. Now, they have the right to try to talk me into
playing, or pay me, but when it comes right down to it, who has the
RIGHT to decide whether I play the piano or play dominoes? Me.

There are 22 guys, including me. I want to draw dinosaurs, and they
all want to play official-rules football (which requires 22
people). NOW who has the ultimate right to decide which I do? They
can beg, persuade, try a guilt-trip, bribe, bargain, etc., but in
the end, I AND I ALONE have the right to decide what is done with
me. Why? Because I own me, and they don’t.

If this seems so self-evident and so obvious that you’re wondering
why I would bother explaining it, that’s a good thing. Hold onto
your brains as we compare that painfully simple concept to the
authoritarian indoctrination we’ve all been exposed to.

If I own me, then I own what I produce. (The owner of the cow is
also the owner of the milk.) If I build a chair, with my own time
and effort, it belongs to me. And if I decide to trade my chair for
someone else’s basket of apples, then the apples become mine. They
belong to me, every bit as much as I belong to me. If I instead
trade my chair for a few silver coins, the silver belongs to me. No
one else. Me. I own me, so I own it.

Okay, I think I’ve about beaten that point to death, and at this
point hardly anyone would disagree–at least, they don’t THINK they
disagree. Do you think I own myself? If you say “yes,” try this
little test: If I want to spend all the silver I got from selling a
bunch of chairs, to buy a boat from someone else, do I have that
right? If I own me, I certainly do.

Oh, but wait. Some guys decided they get a cut of what I earn,
which they call a “tax,” in order to do stuff and buy stuff THEY
think is important. Is that okay? How about if it’s only a 1%
“tax”? Then is it okay?

If you answer “Yes,” you do NOT believe I own me; you believe that
“government,” or the collective, or my neighbors, or something else
owns me, but that I don’t own myself.

As with the sandwich, SOMEONE has the ultimate right to say what is
done with it. If anyone, or any group of people–whether wearing
the label of “authority” or not–has the RIGHT to take what I
earned–essentially, the right to take a piece of me–and I do not
have the right to overrule them, then THEY OWN ME. It’s no more
complicated than that.

Ownership is digital: either I own me, or someone else does. It
can’t be both. When there is a conflict of ideas about what should
be done with me, ONE side–the side which OWNS me–has the final
say. If we disagree, whoever has the moral RIGHT to enforce his
decision is the rightful OWNER of me. If you believe in “taxation”
at all, in any form and to any degree, you believe that someone
ELSE has the final say, which means THEY own me, and I don’t.

As you ponder that thought, don’t be tempted to rant about what we
“need,” or what “works,” or what is “practical” or “realistic.”
There are two options here, and ONLY two options: 1) I own me, or
2) someone else owns me. So which is it? Don’t tell me what you
think is “necessary” for civilization, or how society has to be
arranged, or whether my philosophy would “work.” Don’t bother
fishing for excuses for your answer, and don’t try muddling the
waters with rhetoric about “consent of the governed,” or “giving up
some of our rights,” or what will happen to society if people don’t
accept your answer, or any other evasions. (In other words, don’t
parrot the obfuscations and bunk that has been force-fed to all of
us in order to obscure and mangle what should be a painfully simple
concept.) Just tell me, WHO OWNS ME? (At the same time, you will be
answering another question: “Who owns YOU?”)

Pretty scary huh??? same goes for ones home..pay for it over 30 years, pay 10’s of thousands in interest to a bank, stand proud you pais off the mortgage…now do you OWN your home?  sorry, but NO. The government still owns the home as it owns you. Try not paying property taxes, the government will foreclose on you and take your paid off home. I can go on, but I dont want to you to faint, or better yet start a revolution…lol

Ron Paul again showed Americans, especially Republicans that We the People are not happy with the government. Last night Ron Paul finished 4th in Michigan. A state the campaign spent no resources at. We still BEAT Thompson and Rudy!

Even more impressive is that more than 50,000 people said YES to Ron Pauls message. That is now more than 100,000 Americans in three states that want Freedom, Prosperity and Peace. This number will only grow larger.

There is a movement happening across America. There are now a dozen Americans running for political office as “Ron Paul Republicans”

The Republican party has lost its way, we no longer run a platform that of President Taft “Mr. Republican” and even President Reagan set forth. We have become entitlement party, borrow and spend party, trounce civil liberty party and police the world party.

Ron Paul is the answer to the Republican party. The 3 min. video is from the last debate where Paul specifically addresses why the Republican Party has lost its way.

To Freedom!

HR 1955, Risk to our Liberties

Glenn Beck with Peter Schiff on the Recession

Glenn Beck with the GAO on the Financial Crisis

Our Economic freedoms are at risk, then our liberty and freedoms. There is only one voice that will address this…Ron Paul.

Freedom…Prosperity and Peace!

Its now or never